With a competitive Senate race and three competitive House seats, Nevada is poised to play a pivotal role in deciding control of Congress once again. The Silver State has seen $16.8M spent across its Congressional primaries, while $71.8M has already been reserved for the state’s Congressional general elections, the fourth most in the nation.
While the Republican nomination was contested, incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen saw no challenge to her renomination. The Republican primary saw $4.9M in ad spending, a slight 11.5% increase from what was spent on 2022’s Republican primary. Only two candidates saw major ad support throughout the primary: Sam Brown ($2.6M) and Jeff Gunter ($2.3M). Gunter’s ad support came exclusively from his campaign, while Brown was supported by Duty First Nevada PAC ($918K) Republican Leadership Fund Inc. ($469K), and Americans for Prosperity Action ($337K). The NRSC supported Brown's candidacy, a change from 2022 when they backed his primary opponent and eventual primary winner, Adam Laxalt. Additionally, Donald Trump endorsed Brown last weekend. Internal polling from the Brown campaign suggests Brown has a 38% lead over his closest opponent, Gunter. Brown is already eyeing the general election, with his campaign having reserved $47K for the general, with ads set to run in late June and July. Brown has already attracted the eyes of the Rosen campaign, launching their first TV attack ad against Brown on May 2. Despite premiering three weeks ago, the ad has quickly become Rosen’s most-aired TV ad.
During the primary, incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen’s campaign aired $7.4M worth of ads, including $476K across Hispanic stations. In comparison, incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto’s campaign spent $5.7M throughout the 2022 primary. The most mentioned issues in Rosen’s TV ads have been healthcare, bipartisanship, and veterans. The Rosen campaign aired over 2,000 TV ad airings about abortion so far.
Numerous groups have already gone on the attack against Rosen. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association PAC ($863K), Advancing American Freedom ($161K), Americans for Prosperity Action ($83K), and Americans for Prosperity ($33K) have spent upwards of $1.2M attacking the incumbent Senator.
The general election has already seen $59.2M in future reservations, with Democratic advertisers currently making up 91% of that total. Senate Majority PAC’s WinSenate currently has $36M reserved, with affiliated groups Duty and Honor ($1.8M) and Majority Forward ($1.3M) also reserving ad space to support Rosen. Democratic advertisers currently have $3.2M in future reservations on Hispanic stations. The Rosen campaign has placed $14.4M in future reservations, the second highest future reservation from incumbent Senators this cycle, only behind Sherrod Brown ($26.5M).
Senate Leadership Fund has not yet placed any reservations in Nevada, but One Nation ($4.3M) and American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association PAC ($1M) have placed future reservations, presumably in opposition to Rosen.
Under current redistricting lines, Nevada has three competitive House Districts, the First, Third, and Fourth Districts. All three Districts are currently represented by Democrats who were not seriously challenged in their primaries. However, two of the Republican primaries were contested. The First District saw the most Republican primary spending at $1.2M. Video game composer Marty O’Donnell ($783K) outspent former State Treasurer Dan Schwartz ($453K). The Fourth district saw $595K. Former North Las Vegas Mayor, John Lee ($359K) outspent retired Air Force Lieutenant, David Flippo ($211K). American Honor PAC spent $23K supporting Flippo.
All three Democratic incumbents, Susie Lee ($2.9M), Steven Horsford ($1.6M), and Dina Titus ($1M) have already placed major ad reservations for the general election. Democratic group House Majority PAC (HMP) has also already reserved $7M in the Las Vegas market. Their Republican counterpart, Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), has yet to place any reservations in the Las Vegas market. In the 2022 Midterms, CLF spent $17.3M while HMP spent $10.6M in Las Vegas.
Oregon's primaries were a few weeks ago. Did you read our blog about them?