If you live in Pennsylvania and plan on watching television at all for the next two months, you can expect to be bombarded by political ads. The Keystone state has several exciting elections to watch, ranging from State House races all the way up to the Presidential contest.
In fact, Pennsylvania markets make up four out of the top ten national markets for future reservations through Election Day. Philadelphia rests comfortably atop all U.S. markets with $124.6M, while Pittsburgh ($66.1M), Wilkes Barre-Scranton ($46.3M), and the Harrisburg market ($44.7M) sit at 6th, 9th, and 10th, respectively.
In the PA Presidential election, Philadelphia is the leading market in future reservations with Democrats spending $28.4M to Republicans’ $22.5M. Pittsburgh places second with Democrats narrowly outspending Republicans $15.5M to $11.0M. Next, the Harrisburg market sees Democrats leading Republicans $9.4M to $7.2M.
Democrats ($59.7M) have reserved almost $9M more than Republican advertisers ($50.8M) in the PA Presidential contest. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are aware the Keystone State likely holds the key to winning the Presidency, which is reflected in their campaign expenditures. As one article put it, they “appear to be treating Pennsylvania as their second home until election day.” Even though Pennsylvania lost one electoral seat during reapportionment, it still possesses more electoral votes (19) than all of the other swing states, making the Presidential outcome dependent on the Keystone State.
Interestingly, out of all PA races, the one that has received the most future reservations has been PA Senate, with $117.8M reserved between September 21st and election day. PA Senate reservations exceed future Presidential reservations in PA, which have accumulated $110.5M. Republicans trying to unseat incumbent Senator Bob Casey have mustered up $72.7M, compared to Democrats’ $45.1M.
PA Senate future reservations see Philadelphia in the lead again, but Republicans are outspending Democrats $24.6M to $18.1M. Pittsburgh has the second most future reservations with Republicans outspending Bob Casey and his allies $16.9M to $11.8M. Meanwhile, Wilkes Barre-Scranton has nearly twice as much Republican spending as Democratic: $13.5M to $7.1M.
Additionally, five U.S. House seats within PA’s borders will likely see at least $3M in additional ad spending through Election Day. AdImpact projects that PA-07 will see approximately $17.8M, PA-08 will see $15.5M, PA-10 will see $6.6M, PA-17 will see $4.2M, and PA-01 will see $3.1M. Democrats are outspending Republicans in all those U.S. House elections, except for PA CD-17. Pennsylvania’s 7th, 8th, and 17th Congressional Districts are currently held by Democrats, while the 10th and 1st seats are held by Republicans.
How does this compare to past election years? Because Pennsylvania maintains a purple reputation, the Keystone state has long seen lopsided spending compared to the remainder of the country. During the 2020 Presidential election cycle, PA received the second most ad spending of any state with $335.7M, behind only Florida’s $423.8M. As for party comparison, Democrats outspent Republicans $154.2M to $80.6M in PA between Super Tuesday and Election Day 2020. Biden managed to win Pennsylvania by just over 1%.
The TV markets in Pennsylvania that received the most ad money in 2020 are the same markets receiving the most ad money this election cycle: Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Wilkes Barre-Scranton, and Johnstown-Altoona. If we analyze all U.S markets post-Super Tuesday in 2020, Philadelphia ranked 2nd with $78.5M, Pittsburgh took 7th with $58.2M, Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York placed 11th with $39.9M, and Wilkes Barre-Scranton finished 14th at $27.5M.
The 2022 PA Senate race was the second most expensive race of the 2022 cycle behind the GA Senate race. In total, the 2022 PA Senate race saw $312.2M in ad spending, including $230.3M in the General Election. Democrats outspent Republicans in the General $127.9M to $102.4M, while John Fetterman’s campaign outspent Mehmet Oz’s $47.6M to $28.3M. Meanwhile, Senate Majority PAC, an issue group supporting Fetterman, spent $52M more than the leading Republican issue group, Senate Leadership Fund, which mustered up $42.8M.
See below for current the top pre-booking advertisers in Pennsylvania through Election Day:
For a pre-Labor Day look back on future reservations, check out our blog here: