Written by Ethan Stroh and Ethan Mort
With $315.8M in ad spending and reservations, the California gubernatorial primary has become the most expensive governor's race on record and the fifth-most expensive non-presidential race on record. This primary has beaten out the primary and general election spending behind expensive gubernatorial races such as Illinois 2022 ($215.2M) New Jersey 2025 ($205.9M), and Florida 2018 ($182.2M). This year's California gubernatorial primary has had over 30 unique advertisers. Democratic spending accounts for 99% of all spending, with Republican spending accounting for the remaining 1%.
In terms of spending surrounding California's executive office, nothing comes close to this year's gubernatorial primary. The entire 2022 governor's race saw $14.7M in ad spending, the 2018 California gubernatorial primary saw $42.2M , and the 2021 effort to recall Newsom received $61M.
The bulk of spending targeting the primary landed in the Los Angeles market at $132.7M (42%). The next-largest markets were San Francisco at $53.9M (17%), Sacramento at $36.8M (12%), and San Diego at $23.8M (8%). The remaining spending is spread across Fresno, Monterey, Bakersfield, Santa Barbara, Chico, Palm Springs, and Yuma.
Tom Steyer is the chief driver of spending in the California gubernatorial primary. His campaign has spent $201.2M, accounting for 64% of every dollar spent in the race. His spending in the primary alone has surpassed the combined total spending of the previous California gubernatorial race in 2018 and 2022. He’s currently the second-highest spending advertiser this cycle, only behind Senate Leadership Fund ($209.0M). Steyer is close to approaching the $209.9M his 2020 Presidential campaign spent on ads.
Steyer's ad spending and rise in the polls have prompted a significant response from groups opposing his candidacy. CA is Not for Sale, No on Steyer spent $30.9M on numerous ads attacking Steyer, making it the second-largest single advertiser in the entire race. On broadcast alone, the group has aired seven different creatives attacking Steyer accusing him of trying to buy the governor’s office, and tying him to private prisons and Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Between this group and the Steyer campaign, Californians are seeing a lot of Steyer’s face on their televisions. Together, Steyer for CA Governor and CA is Not for Sale, No on Steyer account for $233M, or 75% of all spending in the race. On broadcast, 70% of ad airings targeting the primary are about Tom Steyer.
Going into the final weekend of the primary, Steyer also leads in future reservation ad support, at $6.3M. He's followed by Xavier Becerra ($3.6M), Chad Bianco ($252K), Steve Hilton ($235K). No other candidate has more than $10K in linear future reservations at this point.
Matt Mahan comes in as the candidate with the second-most ad support at $35.1M, $160M less than Steyer. His campaign spent $5.6M directly, while being supported by California Back to Basics Supporting Matt Mahan for Governor ($25.4M) and Deliver California for Matt Mahan ($4.1M). Mahan has been attacked by group Million More Voters ($450K). Their ads focused around artificial intelligence with one ad saying “Matt Mahan is just more A.I. bull-.”
Xavier Becerra has garnered $24.4M in total ad support between his own campaign ($10.5M), and outside groups Working Families for Healthy Communities Supporting Becerra for Governor ($13.4M), and Latinos United for Xavier Becerra ($201K). Becerra has also seen the aforementioned CA is Not for Sale, No on Steyer air an ad in support of him.
Following Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal from the race, Becerra began climbing in the polls and now leads in most public surveys. His rise has not gone unnoticed. In recent weeks, Antonio Villaraigosa and Steyer have launched ads attacking Becerra.
This is in line with the recent trend of advertising targeting the primary growing increasingly negative. Through March, nearly all broadcast airings targeting the race were positive. Since then, 33% of broadcast airings have been either contrast or negative ads.
As for the other high spending candidates, Katie Porter has seen $4.5M in ad support, entirely from her campaign.
Before withdrawing from the primary, Eric Swalwell saw $8.0M in ad support, $7.2M from outside group, CA for a Fighter in Support of Eric Swalwell, and $800K from his campaign.
The Republican primary has seen far less advertising activity than the Democratic contest. The race has generated just $3.8M in Republican ad spending, accounting for just 1% of all spending targeting the primary. This is largely split between Steve Hilton ($1.3M) and Chad Bianco ($2.7M).
Housing and Energy Drive Broadcast Ad Messaging
The top issues across broadcast ad messaging targeting the primary have been housing, energy, taking on special interests, education, and President Trump. Nearly every major Democratic candidate has aired an ad—or been supported by a group airing ads—that discussed housing.
Opposition to Trump and ICE has also been a major theme. Trump appeared in 21% of all broadcast airings targeting the primary, while ICE appeared in 16%. Like housing, ICE appeared across the broadcast advertising of nearly every major Democratic candidate or their supporting groups, including Steyer, Porter, Becerra, Villaraigosa, and Mahan. Republican advertisers have so far avoided mentioning Trump in their ads, despite the President endorsing Hilton. Republican advertisers have instead focused on transgender individuals in sports and taxation in their ads.
California's top-two primary system allows the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, to advance to the general election. Given Democrats' dominance in the state, general election spending could be significantly higher if two Democrats advance compared to a Democrat-versus-Republican matchup. Stay tuned for further coverage from AdImpact on the California gubernatorial race, among many other key elections throughout the cycle.