Aired: $343.8M (⬆️ 49% from Mar. 2022) Highest Aired Spending Advertiser: Tom Steyer for CA Governor ($29.9M) Top States: Illinois($57.7M), California ($57.5M), Georgia ($31.9M) Top Markets: Chicago ($43.8M), Los Angeles ($24.1M), Atlanta ($17.2M) Broadcast Airings: 243K Most Aired Broadcast Ad: Click Here Top Issues in Broadcast Ads: Donald Trump, Taxation, ICE
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This Edition's Trivia: What is the most expensive ballot proposition on record? (Answer is at the bottom of the newsletter)
— Crowded California Gov Primary Kicks Off
After months in which Tom Steyer and Antonio Villaraigosa were the only candidates to see major ad support in California’s gubernatorial primary, more candidates and outside groups are finally beginning to spend. So far, the contest has seen $114.7M in ad spending and reservations, making it the fourthmost expensive election so far this year, and the second most expensive gubernatorial primary on record (only behind Illinois in 2022). It's already the most expensive non-presidential and non-ballot prop election in California's history, surpassing the state’s 2024 Senate primary by $40M. That gap is likely to continue growing with more than two and a half months remaining until primary day.
Tom Steyer's campaign makes up 78% of all spending targeting the primary. With $89.6M in ad spending and reservations, Steyer is not only the highest-spending advertiser in the contest, but also the highest-spending advertiser so far this cycle. He's been on air with TV ads since last November. His broadcast ads have focused on education, the economy, and Donald Trump.
Matt Mahan has recently emerged as a serious contender on the airwaves, driven largely by outside groups. He has seen $12M in total ad backing, including: California Back to Basics Supporting Matt Mahan for Governor ($7.5M), Deliver California for Matt Mahan ($4M) and his own campaign ($463K).
Then, there's Eric Swalwell and Antonio Villaraigosa. Swalwell, who jumped into the race last November, has seen $4.7M in ad support: $4.4M from CA for a Fighter in Support of Eric Swalwell, and $324K from his campaign. Ads in support of Swalwell just began airing two weeks ago. Villaraigosa has seen $4.4M and has been on air longer than any other candidate, with his first TV ad airing last September. He currently has the second most placed in future reservations with $2.3M set to air, only behind Steyer's $2.6M
Katie Porter has not yet bought any linear ads, but her campaign has placed more than $550K in Facebook ads. Additionally, no Republican candidate has placed more than $50K in total ad spending.
— Mills Goes on the Attack in Maine
Moving to another contested Democratic primary, the two-way race between Graham Platner and Janet Mills took a sharp negative turn this past week. The Mills campaign released an ad featuring women reading aloud Platner’s controversial past Reddit comments, closing with the line: “Graham Platner— the closer you look, the worse it gets.”
Platner has so far remained positive, avoiding direct attacks on Mills. His broadcast ads focus on healthcare, small business, and his character. One of his ads featured an endorsement from Susan Collins, except it wasn’t the Susan Collins you might be thinking of.
Platner leads in ad support, $4.8M to Mills' $1.5M. So far, no outside group has placed a major ad buy supporting either Platner or Mills.
Whoever emerges from the Democratic primary will face a formidable challenge in the general election against incumbent Susan Collins. Both parties are already committing substantial resources to what Cook Political Report currently rates as a toss-up race.
Collins has already seen $20.2M in aired ad support, mostly from One Nation and Stronger America. Looking ahead towards the general, Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $28.7M in summer and fall prebooking, nearly triple its 2020 spending defending Collins. Collins is also set to see $12.5M in future ad support over the summer from Pine Tree Results PAC.
Democratic group, WinSenate, has placed $20.3M in summer and fall prebooking. All in all, $61.9M is already set to target Maine’s Senate general election, compared to $123.5M spent in the 2020 general election.
— Ad Trends Around the Nation
Maps, Money, and Messaging in Virginia — With a little under a month to go, ad spending targeting Virginia's redistricting amendment has reached $27.3M. The Yes side leads in ad support, $25.4M to No's $1.9M. The top advertisers have been Virginians for Fair Elections ($24.4M) and similarly named, but on opposite sides, Virginians for Fair Maps ($1.9M). A recent ad from the Yes camp stars President Barack Obama, warning voters that "Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election" and that voting yes "puts our elections back on a level playing field."
The Fight to Replace McConnell — The Kentucky Senate primary to replace retiring Senator Mitch McConnell has already drawn $42.7M in ad spending, with heavy spending both for and against the leading Republican candidates. Nate Morris has seen $21.5M in ad support, but also $11.3M in spending directly attacking him. One attack ad from Keep America Great PAC labels Morris as "fully woke." Meanwhile, Andy Barr has seen $5.2M in support and $4.7M attacking him. An attack ad from Win It Back PAC coins the nickname "Amnesty Andy" for Barr.
The Race to Succeed Kemp Heats Up in Georgia — The Georgia gubernatorial primary has seen $86.3M in ad spending, with all but $1.2M coming from Republican advertisers. Rick Jackson ($43.3M) and Burt Jones ($17.2M) lead in ad support, with Brad Raffensperger ($3.8M) and Chris Carr ($1.2M) further back. Meanwhile, Georgians for Integrity has spent $19.5M attacking Jones.
The most intriguing race in next week's IL primary is for an open House seat in the 9th, a progressive-leaning city-suburban North Shore district. Here's an ad from @KatAbughazaleh, a young influencer/anti-ICE activist, who could sneak up the middle (or the Left) in a crowded field.
