Aired: $458.5M Highest Aired Spending Advertiser: One Nation ($27.7M) Top States: MI ($70.3M), OH ($45.3M), FL ($36.3M) Top Markets: Detroit ($27.2M), Kansas City ($14.9M), Grand Rapids ($13.5M) Broadcast Airings: 398K Most Aired Broadcast Ad: Click Here Top Issues in Broadcast Ads: Donald Trump, Taxation, Healthcare
This Edition's Trivia: What state saw the least Presidential ad spending in the 2023-2024 cycle?
— Outside Groups Pour $86M Into Michigan Senate Primary
Next week, Michigan voters will decide which Democrat, Haley Stevens or Abdul El-Sayed, will advance to the general election to face Mike Rogers, the Republican running unopposed in his primary. The open seat, currently rated a toss-up by Cook Political, has attracted massive political spending. At $98.2M, the Michigan Senate primary is now the third most expensive Senate primary on record, and the second most expensive this cycle, trailing only Texas. Outside groups have dominated spending targeting the primary. Collectively, groups have spent $86.8M on ad spending and reservations, making up 88% of all spending towards the contest.
Democratic advertisers have dominated primary spending, making up 82% of all spending. Haley Stevens leads in ad support at $62.7M. This advantage is mostly from outside groups such as United Democracy Project ($31.7M), A Stronger Michigan ($16.1M), and Center for Democratic Priorities ($6.5M), among other groups that have spent a combined $7M. Outside groups supporting Stevens make up 97% of her total ad support, compared to 28% of El-Sayed's ad support.
With $31.7M in ad spending and reservations, this race marks United Democracy Project's largest ad spending investment to date, more than double what the group spent defeating Jamaal Bowman in 2024.
Her opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, has seen $7.3M in ad support, almost entirely from his campaign. El-Sayed's campaign has spent $5.2M on ads, $3.0M more than the Stevens campaign spent. He’s seen ad support from Fighting for Michigan PAC ($1.2M), American Priorities ($581K) and Working Families Party ($244K).
Both camps have gone on the attack in their ad messaging. United Democracy Project has targeted El-Sayed over his past criticism of Democrats, while El-Sayed has attacked Stevens on the matter of ICE. The top messaging themes in the primary are Donald Trump, ICE, healthcare, special interests, and Barack Obama. Nearly 73% of all broadcast airings were about Trump and the candidate's opposition to him.
Looking ahead to the general, Republicans have a future reservation advantage: $27.8M to $17.0M. Likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers has already seen $17.1M in ad support during the primary.
Right next door to Michigan, Democrats are locked in another competitive statewide primary. The Wisconsin gubernatorial primary has seen $17.9M in ad spending and reservations so far. With incumbent governor Tony Evers opting not to run for another term, Cook Political rates the general election as a tossup.
Even though Representative Tom Tiffany has effectively locked up the Republican nomination, Republican advertisers have placed a majority of advertising targeting the primary. This comes from the Tiffany campaign ($6.0M), Right Direction WI ($3.1M), and pro-Tiffany group Restoration of America PAC ($2.4M). Right Direction launched an ad attacking Democratic candidate Francesca Hong's "progressive agenda" and her opposition to President Donald Trump.
On the Democratic side, David Crowley leads in ad support at $1.9M. After initially suspending his campaign, Crowley jumped back into the primary following Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez's exit from the race. Crowley has seen ad support from Wisconsin Future Fund ($1.1M) and Believe in Wisconsin ($357K). His campaign has spent $357K.
Following Crowley is Joel Brennan ($683K), and Kelda Roys ($390K). Despite leading in a majority of polling, Hong has not yet gone up with any linear advertising.
Prior to dropping out, Mandela Barnes had $800K in total ad support, $654K from Impossible Until It's Done, and $145K from his campaign.
The primary has remained mostly positive with campaigns releasing ads about affordability, healthcare, and Trump. Brennan, however, released an ad attacking Hong, Crowley, and Barnes all at once.
— Ad Trends Around the Nation
Another Big Primary in Michigan — It's not just the Senate election seeing a large amount of ad spending in Michigan. The gubernatorial primary has seen $63.7M in ad spending, with 76% of that number coming from Republican advertisers. Perry Johnson leads in ad support at $31.6M, followed by John James ($8.0M) and Mike Cox ($5.3M). President Donald Trump has been a consistent theme on broadcast ads among Republican advertisers. With James seen as the frontrunner, Johnson and Cox have recently released ads attacking him.
100 Day Campaign in Maine — Last Sunday, Troy Jackson officially replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee in the Maine Senate general election. Republican advertisers wasted no time attacking him: the next day, the Pine Tree Results PAC aired a broadcast ad linking Jackson to Platner. As of publication, the Jackson campaign has yet to place linear ad reservations. Republicans have nearly triple the future reservations Democrats do, $60M to $22.7M.
Darlene Graham Sees Early Ad Support — Following the passing of Senator Lindsey Graham, Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darlene Graham, to serve out the remainder of Lindsey Graham's term. With the urging of President Trump, Darlene Graham announced she is running in the special primary to win re-election. Lindsey Graham's old PAC, Security is Strength PAC, ran an ad in support of Darlene Graham this past week, and the NRSC, in coordination with Darlene's campaign, aired an ad in support of her.
