House Spending Surges in an Off-Year and Updates in New York and New Jersey
May 30th, 2025
The AdVantage is written by Nate Schwartz
2021 Spending to Date
$309.0M
2025 Spending to Date
$548.4M
This edition's trivia: What figure is the most money ever spent on ads in a House race?
(Answer is at the end of the newsletter)
— Off-Year House Spending is at Record Pace
Through May, there has been $18.2M in linear spending on non-special House elections this year, the most on record. 2021 and 2023 saw $9.0M and $5.7M, respectively. Republican advertisers have spent $11.1M, compared to Democratic advertisers' $7.1M. The majority of these ads end byrequesting constituents to call their Congressperson.
American Action Network has been the most consistent advertiser in off-years, spending over $2M every off-year since 2021 in support of Republicans. The only similar Democratic advertiser is House Majority Forward, which spent over $1M in 2021 and 2025. The target of off-year advertising in the House is heavily influenced by which party is in control.
In 2021, Democrats controlled the House and aired 72% of their ads in Democratic-controlled districts and Republicans aired 91% of their House ads there as well. In 2023, when Republicans controlled the House, Republicans continued hitting the airwaves in Democratic toss-up districts while Democrats turned on the offensive.
This year, with Republicans retaining control, Democrats have continued to target Republican district, and Republicans have now amped up their approach to their own Congresspeople. With the "Big Beautiful Bill" finally getting passed last week, significant amounts of their messaging were targeted towards it. Some used advertising to suggest potential policy changes, such as American Energy Action ($12.6M). Others, such as Trump's PAC, Securing American Greatness ($7.2M), or American Action Network ($3.8M) were telling Republicans to support the bill.
— Updates in New Jersey and New York
Two of the biggest races of this year are barreling towards their June primaries: New Jersey Governor and New York City Mayor.
The New Jersey gubernatorial primary has seen $78.6M in spending and reservations, making it the third-most expensive gubernatorial primary on record. Only Illinois in 2022 ($148.3M) and Florida in 2018 ($112.9M) have seen more in a primary. The spending is primarily on the Democratic side: 88% of spending comes from Democratic advertisers. Current Representative for NJ-05, Josh Gottheimer, leads candidates with $21.7M in ad support, with mayor of Jersey City, Steven Fulop, second at $17.7M. Mikie Sherrill, who currently holds a narrow lead in polls and party endorsements, has only seen $9.3M in ad support. On the Republican side, Jack Ciattarelli leads in spending and in a recent poll, with $5.0M in ad support. The primary is under two weeks away: Election Day is June 10th.
In New York City, the mayoral primary has seen $16.6M. While it may not see the same volume that the 2021 primary got (nearly a $60M primary), there is still a lot of action. Fix the City, a group supporting Andrew Cuomo, has spent $8.1M, leading all advertisers. Cuomo's campaign has yet to air a linear ad. Three candidates are all close for second-place in terms of ad support: Zohran Mamdani ($2.8M), Brad Lander ($2.1M), Scott Stringer ($1.7M), and Zellnor Myrie ($1.7M).
— Everything Else Happening Across the Country
Spanberger Airs First Ad in Virginia Governor 2025: Democratic candidate for Virginia Governor, Abigail Spanberger, aired her first linear ad this week. She spent $141K on broadcast and cable. She has spent $504K on digital so far as well. The Virginia gubernatorial race has been quiet so far, with only $2.1M in total spending and reservations. Republican candidate Winsome Sears has spent $1.4M to date.
Georgia Senate Continues to See Early Spending: Republican candidate Buddy Carter has spent and reserved $2.4M across May and June. This puts the 2026 Georgia Senate primary at $10.0M in spending and reservations, the first Senate race to ever eclipse $10M through June of an off-year. The closest race was Arizona Senate 2022, which saw $8.6M in the same timeframe of 2021.
Off-Year Spending Continues Record Pace: Through Q1 and Q2, there has been $564M in political ad spending and reservations. This is $104M more than in 2024, and there is still a month to go in Q2 2025.
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