Aired: $607.1M (⬆️ 15% from Apr. 2022 | ⬆️ 40% from last month) Highest Aired Spending Advertiser: Tom Steyer for CA Governor ($57.1M) Top States: California ($189.0M), Georgia ($58.6M), Texas ($52.7M) Top Markets: Los Angeles ($72.4M), San Francisco ($31.2M), Atlanta ($30.4M) Broadcast Airings: 646K Most Aired Broadcast Ad: Click Here Top Issues in Broadcast Ads: Donald Trump, Immigration, Taxation
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This Edition's Trivia: The recent KY CD-04 primary became the most expensive House primary on record. What's now the second most expensive House primary? (Answer is at the bottom of the newsletter)
— $315M and Counting: The CA Gubernatorial Primary
The California gubernatorial primary has surpassed $315M in total ad spending and reservations, making it the fifth most expensive non-Presidential race on record. Democratic advertisers have spent $299M, a larger sum than they spent on the entirety of the 2024 Ohio Senate race, currently the most expensive non-Presidential race on record.
The biggest story in the California gubernatorial primary? Tom Steyer.
The Steyer campaign has spent $201.4M, accounting for 65% of all ad spending targeting the primary. On broadcast alone, Steyer has aired 161K airings across 61 unique creatives, with ads also released in Spanish, and Mandarin.
Steyer's massive ad spending and rise in the polls attracted some attention. Two months ago, the group CA is Not For Sale: No on Steyer entered the race, airing ads attacking Steyer while backing Xavier Becerra. The group has since spent $31.6M, making it the second-highest spending advertiser in the election behind only the Steyer campaign.
Despite trailing Steyer by roughly $166M in ad support, Matt Mahan has seen the second-most ad support in the race at $35.1M. Most of that backing has come from outside groups, including California Back to Basics Supporting Matt Mahan ($25.3M) and Deliver California for Matt Mahan ($4.1M), while the Mahan campaign itself has spent $5.6M.
Xavier Becerra has seen the third-most ad support at $24.4M. Alongside his campaign ($10.5M), Working Families for Healthy Communities Supporting Becerra for Governor ($13.4M) and Latinos United for Xavier Becerra ($201K) have aired ads in support of Becerra. Additionally the aforementioned CA is Not For Sale: No on Steyer has aired one ad backing Becerra while attacking Steyer over 2.5K times on broadcast.
Overall, the primary has gotten a lot more negative as of late. Up until March, nearly all broadcast airings targeting the primary were positive. Since March, 33% of broadcast airings targeting the primary are contrast or negative.
The Republican primary has seen far less advertising activity than the Democratic contest. The race has generated $3.8M in Republican ad spending, split largely between Steve Hilton ($1.1M) and Chad Bianco ($2.7M).
Going into the final weekend of the primary, Steyer leads in future reservation ad support, at $6.3M. He's followed by Becerra ($3.6M), Bianco ($252K), Hilton ($235K). No other candidate has more than $10K in linear future reservations at this point.
Between the Knicks reaching the NBA Finals for the first time this century and a packed primary calendar, June will be a major month for New York. So far, the Empire State has seen $53.5M in ad spending and reservations across 32 2026 primaries this cycle. The largest driver of that spending has been the primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District.
The contest has seen $14.8M in ad spending and reservations, making it the second-most expensive House primary in state history, trailing only the $25.4M spent in the 2022 NY-16 primary. Additionally, this year's NY-12 primary currently ranks as the eighth most expensive House primary on record.
State Representative Micah Lasher leads the field in ad support with $5.4M, almost entirely fueled by the outside group Stand for New York.
Following Lasher, State Representative Alex Bores has seen the second-most ad support at $4.1M. His campaign has spent $484K directly, while outside support has come from You Can Push Back ($1.6M), Jobs and Democracy ($1.9M), and Dream NYC ($154K). Bores has also become a major target in the race, with Think Big PAC spending $1.6M on ads attacking him.
George Conway, best known for his role in the Lincoln Project, has spent $2.2M on advertising. One of his recent ads features a promise to impeach President Trump.
Lastly, Jack Schlossberg has spent $344K on advertising. One of his recent ads highlights an endorsement from Nancy Pelosi.
— Ad Trends Around the Nation
WinSenate Starts to Catch Up to Senate Leadership Fund — Last month, we highlighted WinSenate’s early fall prebookings, which totaled $26.1M across Maine, New Hampshire, and Alaska. Since then, the Democratic group has significantly expanded its reservations and now has $117.5M set to air this fall across eight states: North Carolina ($27.0M), Maine ($18.1M), Michigan ($17.0M), Georgia ($16.4M), Ohio ($14.1M), Iowa ($11.5M), New Hampshire ($8.9M), and Alaska ($4.5M). In comparison, Senate Leadership Fund has $206.1M in fall reservations set to air in the same eight states: Ohio ($54.1M), North Carolina ($37.5M), Georgia ($25.5M), Michigan ($25.3M), Maine ($25.1M), Iowa ($19.3M), New Hampshire ($12.9M), and Alaska ($6.5M).
One Expensive Runoff Ends, Another Begins — Last week, Georgia’s already expensive Republican gubernatorial primary advanced to a runoff between Rick Jackson and Burt Jones. The primary alone saw $126M in ad spending, and there's $18.1M targeting the runoff. Jackson currently has $83.7M in combined primary and runoff ad support, compared to Jones’ $33.0M.
Paxton Overcomes Cornyn’s $81M Ad Support Advantage — Earlier this week, Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican Senate runoff, aided by a late endorsement from President Trump. Paxton’s victory came despite Cornyn holding an $81M ad support advantage between the primary and runoff. When looking at their combined primary and runoff ad support vs votes in the primary runoff, Cornyn has a cost per vote of $184.7 versus Paxton's $22.51.
