This month's issue of The AdVantage takes a look at TX Senate, open seat contests in Illinois, plus other ad trends around the nation.
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January 2026

 

Looking Ahead to March's Primaries

 The AdVantage is written by Ethan Mort

JAN SIGNALS + TRENDS

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Aired: $121.6M (⬆️ 40.2% from Jan. 2022)
Highest Aired Spending Advertiser: Tom Steyer for CA Governor ($11.0M)
Top States: Texas ($28.2M), California ($12.8M), Illinois ($11.1M)
Top Markets: Chicago ($8.7M), Houston ($7.4M), Dallas ($7.1M)
Broadcast Airings: 80.1K
Most Aired Broadcast Ad: Click Here
Top Issues in Broadcast Ads:
Donald Trump, Immigration, Taxation

This Edition's Trivia: What state saw the largest jump in non-Presidential ad spending between the 2022 and 2024 cycle? (Read to the end for the answer!)

— The Senate Showdown in the Lone Star State

An old-school Wild West showdown is unfolding in the Lone Star State. The Texas Senate primary has already seen over $70.7M in spending and reservations, making it the most expensive non-Presidential primary on record in the state.

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On the Republican side, polling suggests longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces an uphill battle against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. Cornyn has received the most ad support in the race, totaling $48.9M, largely driven by outside groups. Major contributors include Lone Star Freedom Project ($17.8M), Texans for a Conservative Majority ($15.4M), Senate Leadership Fund–aligned One Nation ($10.9M), among other groups. Overall, outside groups account for 98% of Cornyn’s ad support.

The incumbent has also faced $3.6M in advertising opposing his reelection, most of it from Lone Star Conservative Action Fund ($3.2M). The group has aired ads primarily focused on immigration, with one ad labeling him “Democrats’ favorite Republican.”

Second in ad support, Hunt officially announced his Senate bid last October. Prior to this announcement, Hunt had already benefited from $6.7M in ad support. Both his campaign and allied groups aired ads statewide in Texas, as well as in the West Palm Beach, FL market, which houses Mar-A-Lago. In total, Hunt has seen $9.0M in ad support this cycle, $3.2M from his campaign, $5.6M from Standing for Texas, and $188K from Hellfire PAC.

Despite leading in polling, Paxton has not gone up on linear yet, and has minimal spending on digital. A spokesman for the pro-Paxton group, Texas Lone Star Liberty PAC stated, "We feel good about where we're at and will spend our resources when it's necessary, and not before."

Across the aisle, the Democratic primary has seen $7.3M in total, with Texas State Rep. James Talarico leading the way. His campaign has spent $6.8M and has released three ads on broadcast so far. The ads introduce him to voters, discuss his efforts to cap insulin, and show his support of public schools 

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has yet to book any spending on linear, but has been active across Facebook and Google. Punchbowl reported that a top supporter of Crockett hinted that she will air both positive and contrast ads.

—  Winds of Change in Illinois

With five House seats and a Senate seat open, the winds of change are blowing through Illinois. That shift is already showing up on the airwaves. AdImpact has tracked $31.0M in advertising targeting these six primaries so far.

The Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin has seen $26.6M in total ad spending and reservations. This race is already dramatically outpacing the previous two Illinois Democratic Senate primaries, which combined for $1.0M. The leading driver of this primary's spending has been U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, whose campaign accounts for 91% of all ad dollars targeting the contest. He's been on the air since July 15. Krishnamoorthi is no stranger to heavy advertising. Across his two most recent reelection campaigns, he spent $4.7M on ads despite facing little ad spending opposing him in either cycle, and with Cook Political rating his seat “Solid D” both times.

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Two more recent entrants into the primary’s advertising battle include Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly. Stratton has received $1.5M in ad support from Illinois Future PAC, a group funded by Gov. J.B. Pritzker. The group’s first ad explicitly connects Stratton to Pritzker. Meanwhile, Kelly has seen $1.0M in ad support from her campaign, with broadcast spots set to begin airing on February 17.

On the House side, the most contested primary so far is Illinois’ 9th Congressional District, where candidates are vying to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky. The race has seen $2.4M in ad spending, led by State Sen. Laura Fine at $1.2M. Fine is the only candidate in the race to air a broadcast ad so far. Kat Abughazaleh follows with $892K in ad spending, with more than two-thirds targeting digital platforms such as Facebook ($263K), CTV ($251K), and Google ($70K). Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss is behind Abughazaleh with $279K, also relying on a digital and cable-heavy strategy with no broadcast spending to date. As of now, all linear ad spending in the district has come directly from campaigns.

The only other Illinois House primary to surpass $1.0M in ad spending is the 2nd District, where Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller has placed $1.0M in spending and reservations, making her the sole advertiser on linear in the race so far.

— Ad Trends Around the Nation

California Dreamin' — The California gubernatorial election has seen $35.2M. The highest-spending advertiser in the race is Tom Steyer, who has placed $30.8M in ad spending and reservations. Steyer is the only advertiser currently on air with linear. Meanwhile, current Democratic frontrunner, Katie Porter, has spent $442K across Facebook and Google. 

Battle in the Bayou —  Sen. Bill Cassidy just aired his first TV ad of the cycle. The spot mentions Cassidy's efforts to crack down on fentanyl and includes a mention of President Trump. So far, the incumbent Senator has spent $380K on ads this cycle. Last week, U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow announced she will run for Senate after encouragement from President Trump, who has said he would endorse her if she entered the race. Letlow has yet to air any linear ads targeting the Senate contest. 

Money Moves in Maine —  In the first major summer and fall prebook of the year, Senate Leadership Fund reserved $28.7M set to air August 12th through Election Day. This already exceeds the $11.8M the group spent supporting Sen. Susan Collins in 2020. On the Democratic side, Gov. Janet Mills just aired her first TV ad this morning after booking $108K in new ad dollars yesterday. Her opponent, Graham Platner, has spent $1.7M and recently released a new TV ad attacking Collins over the cost of living. 

FROM OUR DESK

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— In Your Feed

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United Democracy Project is placing ad reservations targeting the #NJ11 special primary. So far, the group has placed $353K in reservations. Ads start tomorrow.

In 2024, the group spent $35M across House primaries—most notably $15.0M in #NY16 and $9.3M in #MO01.

— AdImpact_Pol, January 16th, 2026

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    #TXPol: "When I was 28, I almost died. I was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes...So when I got to the Texas House, I took on Big Pharma and capped insulin at $25 a month."

    The Talarico campaign is up with a new TV ad.

    — AdImpact_Pol, January 23rd, 2026

      Trivia answer: Ohio ($435M increase in non-Presidential spending from 2022 to 2024)

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