By Josh Fried
Toss-Up House races will be critical for both parties in 2024. In 2020, both parties spent $461M in races deemed toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. House toss-up expenditure increased in the 2022 Midterms, as both parties spent a combined $770M, a 69% increase from 2020. The 2022 House toss-up races also saw 100K more broadcast airings than the 2020 races. Analyzing Republican House toss-up spending and messaging draws attention to how their strategies have shifted in recent election cycles. In 2020, the GOP spent $203M across all House toss-ups and $369M in 2022, an 81% increase. The average GOP toss-up House race spend increased from $7.5M in 2020 to $10.5M in 2022. Looking ahead to 2024 House toss-ups, the Allen v. Milligan ruling by the Supreme Court carries implications for Republicans as Louisiana and Alabama each saw two House seats move from Solid R to toss-up. In light of these Cook rating changes, affected races could see more spending than previously expected. 
The 2020 toss-up races that saw the most Republican spending were NM-02, MN-07, and NY-22. Republican advertisers spent at least $11.2M in each of the three races. In NM-02, Republican candidate Yvette Harrell defeated Democratic Incumbent Xochitl Torres Small by 7 points. In MN-07, Republican Michelle Fischbach defeated longtime Democratic Incumbent Collin Peterson by 13 points. In NY-22, former Republican Congresswoman Claudia Tenney faced a rematch against Incumbent Democrat Anthony Brindisi. The election came down to a difference of 55 ballots and a court ruling. Ultimately, Tenney defeated Brindisi in the nail-biting race. 
The 2022 House toss-up races with the highest GOP expenditure were ME-02, NH-01, and CA-22. Republican advertisers spent a combined $58M in the three races. Republican candidates lost in ME-02 and NH-01, as former GOP Representative Bruce Poliquin was unsuccessful against Democratic Incumbent Jared Golden in Maine and former Trump staffer Karoline Leavitt was defeated by Incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas in New Hampshire. Republicans were able to hold onto CA-22, where Incumbent Republican David Valadao defeated Democratic State Representative Rudy Salas by 3 points.
Taxation, tying Democratic opponents to Nancy Pelosi, and Healthcare were the top issues in 2020 GOP House toss-up broadcast ads. The 2020 GOP House toss-up ad with the most airings was in CA-21 about Democratic Congressman TJ Cox’s alleged Tax Issues. The NRCC ad, which had over 1K broadcast airings, attacked Cox claiming that he defrauded investors and didn’t pay his taxes. The ad placed Cox’s face next to the word “corrupt” in big bolded white letters.
In 2022, the top GOP broadcast issues were Taxation, Inflation, and tying Democratic opponents to President Biden. The NRCC also placed the 2022 GOP House toss-up ad with the most airings; this time in PA-07. The ad claimed that Incumbent Democrat Susan Wild was “out of touch” on inflation and higher gas prices.
Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden were two prominent Democratic political figures that Republicans targeted in their ads for toss-up House races. In 2020, many GOP advertisers attempted to associate swing district Democrats with Pelosi. In fact, of the ten most aired GOP toss-up ads in 2020 mentioning Pelosi, the word “Liberal” appeared in seven. In the NM-02 2020 General, the NRCC associated Xochitl Torres Small with Pelosi by claiming that she “votes with Pelosi 94% of the time”. Similarly in the MN-07 2020 General, Republican Michelle Fischbach attacked longtime Democratic Incumbent Collin Peterson for not “standing up to the liberal mob”.
Republicans targeted President Biden in 2022 toss-up ads. In ME-02, Bruce Poliquin attacked Incumbent Democrat Jared Golden for supporting Biden. As Trump won ME-02 in both 2016 and 2020, Poliquin hoped attacking Biden would help him flip the seat. One ad stated, “Golden’s backing Biden,” in an attempt to use the partisanship of ME-02 (PVI R+6) to his advantage. Republican advertisers drew connections between their opponents and national Democratic figures to associate them with Biden and Pelosi’s policies.
So far in the 2024 Congressional cycle, NC-13, PA-08, and WA-03 have seen the most GOP ad reservations in House toss-up races. Democratic Incumbents currently hold each seat, which Republicans are looking to flip. There has been almost $1.9M in GOP House toss-up ad reservations in the first six months of 2023, almost $300K less than the same period in 2021. As spending for 2024 elections ramps up, House toss-up races will certainly be a priority for both parties.
For further analysis on 2022 House toss-up spending, click here
