October 3, 2018
From Politico Morning Score:
Their fight remains one of the most important races in the battle for the Senate. In the runup to the state's late August primary (in which both were running essentially unopposed), the governor swamped Nelson on the airwaves, setting an early tone — and building a polling lead. A spot count by USA Today in August found that Scott and his allies ran more than three times as many ads as Nelson's allies (Nelson himself didn't run his first ad until after the primary), hitting the senator on everything from Medicare to immigration. [AdImpact] tracked more than $45 million in television spending during the primary, with more than 70 percent of it spent backing Scott. Public polling at the time showed Scott leading Nelson, too.
But as Scott's advantage on the airwaves has diminished, so has his lead in the polls. Data from the past week from [AdImpact] still has Scott outspending Nelson on airtime, about $2.4 million to $1.8 million. But Democratic outside groups like Majority Forward and Senate Majority PAC have helped close that gap (New Republican PAC, a super PAC Scott once ran , is also spending big money on Scott's behalf). This parity is seen through the election: From the start of the general election through Election Day, Scott has $24 million total booked, while Nelson has $19 million. SMP and NRP both have about $19 million of their own booked, while Majority Forward is kicking in $7.7 million, according to data from [AdImpact] provided to Score. Recent polling compiled by FiveThirtyEight has Nelson leading relatively narrowly, as the race seemingly shifts back towards team blue.
Read the full article here.