Written by Timothy Dias
Even though both former President Trump and President Biden just became their parties’ presumptive Presidential nominees, the political advertising world has already been focused on November for quite some time. Despite eight months until the 2024 general election, we have already seen over half a billion dollars booked across various states for the three months leading up to November’s general election. While the presidential election will garner the most eyeballs and money by the end of the cycle, Senate prebooked reservations have racked up the most dollars so far. A handful of tightly contested Senate races have already seen significant reservations in the battle for control of the chamber. Looking ahead to the general election, we’ll preview the current prebooked reservations for the three months leading to election day.
President
With the Republican Presidential primary field cleared for former President Trump, Democrats have been squarely focused on this fall’s rematch of the 2020 contest. The Democratic-aligned Future Forward (FF) PAC has placed $130.2M in ad reservations in key swing states from August through election day. Currently, the largest reservations are in Pennsylvania ($35.1M), Michigan ($24.7M), Arizona ($21.5M), Georgia ($18.4M), and Wisconsin ($16.2M), all states won by former President Trump in 2016 but carried by President Biden in 2020.
In addition, FF PAC has also placed reservations in Nevada ($5.6M), North Carolina ($5.0M), and Nebraska ($3.7M). Reservations in Nebraska are directed toward the 2nd Congressional District in the Omaha market. Nebraska is one of two states whose electoral votes are not allocated in a winner-take-all system, but split its electors between the overall winner and the winner of each of its three Congressional Districts. NE-02 flipped between 2016 and 2020 to support Biden.
The 2020 Presidential general election saw $1.8B in total spending, with Democratic-aligned money making up $1.1B of that total compared to $690M for Republicans. While this year’s expenditure is nowhere near those 2020 totals yet, it is notable that the $3.7M placed in the Omaha, NE market is already more than what was spent there in 2020.
Senate
The 2024 Senate map is historically unfavorable for Democrats, best summarized by Democratic incumbents running in very competitive races. Democratic advertisers have already made significant investments in its vulnerable contests. In fact, Republicans are currently not defending any Senate seat which Cook Political Report labels less than Likely R. Democrats, on the other hand, have seven seats they are defending that are rated either Lean D (MI, NV, PA, WI) or Toss Up (AZ, MT, OH) and one state, West Virginia, which is Solid R. In West Virginia, the retirement of Senator Joe Manchin, has moved the race from a Democratic incumbency to a Solid Republican seat unlikely to see significant Democratic ad activity.
The seven competitive states have seen prebooked reservations totaling $369.8M. Of these states, only Ohio and Montana have seen Republican reservations, while Democrats have spent in all seven. Ohio has seen the most future reservations so far with $142.6M for the fall. This is already 33% more than what was spent in Ohio’s 2022 Senate general election when Republican J.D. Vance defeated Tim Ryan. Three-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking reelection in a state whose Presidential results have trended further Republican each cycle since 2008. Democratic PAC, WinSenate, has committed $65.6M supporting Brown’s re-election while Republicans have reserved $77.0M from two PACs: Senate Leadership Fund and American Crossroads. In Montana, Democrats have booked a total $50.3M from WinSenate, Last Best Place PAC, and incumbent Democrat Jon Tester’s campaign. Donald Trump won the state with 57% in 2020. Republican groups have placed $49.1M in prebooked reservations, bringing Montana’s current fall reservations to just under $100M.
In the five other Senate races with Democratic reservations, WinSenate is currently the sole buyer. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey is currently being boosted by $42.5M. In Nevada, we’ve seen $33.2 in prebooked reservations supporting Jacky Rosen’s reelection bid. In Arizona, the recent announcement that Senator Kyrsten Sinema is not running for reelection has cleared the field for a likely Ruben Gallego v. Kari Lake matchup. Gallego began spending this week in the lead up to the July 30th primary. We’ve seen $23.1M worth of Arizona fall reservations placed by WinSenate. The final two states, Michigan and Wisconsin, have seen lesser reservations compared to Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona, but have still seen $14.5M and $13.8M respectively. Though these states will not be the focal point of media attention, Democrats must win these two states to have hope of a Senate majority.
One other state has seen prebooked reservations for Senate. Indiana, not anticipated to be a close race, has seen $782K in reservations from a Republican crypto-focused PAC, Defend American Jobs. Incumbent Senator Mike Braun is seeking the Republican nomination for Indiana Governor, and Congressman Jim Banks is the sole Republican in the May 7th Indiana Senate primary. This election has a Solid R rating.
How does this prebooked spending track with recent history? In the 2022 general election, Pennsylvania ($230M), Nevada ($162M), and Arizona ($148M) were the second, third, and fourth most expensive Senate contests overall. Ohio, the state with the most Senate prebooked spending this year, was not one of the top four most expensive in 2022. While it is hard to say which state will ultimately see the highest general election expenditure, it is easy to see which states have the parties’ attention eight months out.
North Carolina Attorney General
In addition to Presidential and Senate prebooks, we’ve seen $7.9M in ad reservations targeting the North Carolina Attorney General election this fall. Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Jeff Jackson, both current members of Congress, are running. Bishop announced his retirement to run for Attorney General while Jackson opted to run after his district was redrawn by the state’s General Assembly to a Safe R district. In 2020, Democrat Josh Stein won the general election by 0.23%, or just under 14,000 votes. That general election saw $14M spent, with Democrats greatly outspending Republicans $12M to $2M. The race has already seen nearly 60% of the total spending from the previous election. In fact, Republicans have already reserved almost twice as much this cycle just in prebooked reservations alone, with both parties having spent $3.9M.
AdImpact projected that the 2024 cycle will be the most expensive in history. Prebooked spending eight months out indicate that groups will spend early and often on key general election races.
