Just one month after he secured his renomination in South Carolina's Senate race, Senator Lindsey Graham's passing upended the state's political landscape. Urged by President Donald Trump, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham, to serve the remainder of his term. With Trump's support, Darline Graham is running in tomorrow's special primary in hopes of securing a full term. The contest has seen $4.7M in ad spending in just under a month since it was called.
The June Republican Primary
Lindsey Graham won the Republican primary in an election that saw a total of $24.6M in ad spending. He saw $15.3M in ad support, with most of that coming from his own campaign ($13.3M). More than ten groups backed Lindsey Graham's campaign, with the highest-spending groups being Security is Strength ($1.1M), One Nation ($690K), Fellowship PAC ($385K), and American Mission ($305K).
Businessman Mark Lynch ran against Lindsey Graham. He saw $4.9M in ad support, most of which came from his campaign ($4.7M). Lynch saw $4.0M in ad spending attacking him, mostly coming from pro-Graham PAC Palmetto Action ($3.3M).
The August Republican Special Primary
The current frontrunner in the polls is Darline Graham. She has also seen the most ad support in the contest at $1.8M. The Darline Graham campaign has spent $494K over the short course of the campaign; that number includes $442K in coordination with the National Republican Senatorial Committee. She's seen a further $1.3M in ad support from Security is Strength PAC ($806K) and Palmetto Action ($484K), both of which supported her late brother in the past.
Security is Strength PAC also has $8.4M in fall reservations, likely targeting the general election. These reservations were first booked at the end of June.
After losing in the June primary, Mark Lynch is running in the special primary. He's seen $235K in ad support in this contest, a figure much smaller than the $4.9M that supported him in the June primary. This time around, his campaign has spent $227K, and has seen $9K in ad support from Patriots for a Brighter America.
A new candidate who didn't run in the original primary is Mark Sanford, a former Congressman and governor. After losing the SC-01 primary, his campaign has spent $882K on this special primary.
Congressman Ralph Norman, who unsuccessfully ran for governor this past June, has also entered the race. His campaign has spent $242K in this special primary.
Lastly, Congressman Russell Fry is doing double duty: simultaneously running for SC-07 in the general election and competing in this Senate special primary. His campaign has spent just over $450K targeting this primary, and he's seen a further $1.1M in ad support from the Palmetto Leadership Fund.
Trump, the Economy, and Social Issues
A majority (59%) of broadcast ad airings targeting the special primary has been about President Trump. Breaking it down by campaign, Darline Graham highlighted the President's endorsement in her ads. Meanwhile, Fry and a PAC supporting him launched ads touting the candidate's own support of the President. Groups have even invoked Trump in attack ads against candidates. The pro-Darline Graham group Security is Strength launched an ad (featuring AI-generated content) that attacks Fry, with the ad starting with the narration: "Career politician Russell Fry: rejected by President Trump"
Other top messaging themes have been immigration, the debt/budget, and inflation. Hot-button social issues have also made their way into the primary. Sanford launched an ad highlighting his pro-life stance, and an ad from the NRSC/Darline Graham campaign discusses transgender rights.
On broadcast, Lindsey Graham has only been mentioned by his sister's campaign, or groups supporting her.
The South Carolina Senate special primary has become the third most expensive special primary of the cycle and the most expensive special primary in South Carolina's history — a feat accomplished in just a month. Polling indicates that this primary could head to a special primary runoff, a contest that is likely to attract even more ad spending to the Palmetto State.
