Written by Nate Schwartz

Off-year gubernatorial elections are few and far between, but can still see significant ad spending. Three states will hold their gubernatorial elections in 2023: Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The other off-year gubernatorial elections, held in New Jersey and Virginia, last occurred in 2021, seeing over $125M in total ad spending. California also had a recall election for Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom that saw $62M, making 2021 a substantial year for gubernatorial election and recall spending.

So far in 2023, the Kentucky and Louisiana gubernatorial races have already seen $3.7M reserved for the year’s first quarter.

In 2019, Cook Political Report rated Louisiana and Kentucky as tossups, while Mississippi was rated as Lean R. Democrats won both tossups (Andy Beshear defeated incumbent Matt Bevin in Kentucky and John Bel Edwards held onto his seat in Louisiana), while Republican Tate Reeves won an open seat in Mississippi.

Gubernatorial election spending has increased precipitously from previous cycles, which could make the 2023 gubernatorial elections interesting. On average, gubernatorial election years have seen a 47% increase in spending from the last time they were on the ballot since 2016. For example, 2022 gubernatorial spending was 63% higher than in 2018. 

By applying the 47% average increase from the 2019 total, 2023 gubernatorial races could see $139M, which would top 2020 and 2021 gubernatorial spending. This year’s gubernatorial election cycle is the only one that has yet to cross the $100M threshold since 2016, which it almost assuredly will. 2023 total gubernatorial spending has already gotten off to a strong start compared to 2019. In 2019, the three gubernatorial races saw $1.4M in first quarter spending. So far in 2023, the Kentucky and Louisiana gubernatorial races have already seen $2.1M reserved for the year’s first quarter.

Kentucky

Kentucky’s 2019 gubernatorial election foreshadowed general trends in 2020 elections. Andy Beshear’s (D) upset of Matt Bevin (R) by just 5,000 votes helped set the tone for Democrats going into a presidential year. The race saw $30.7M, mostly in the general election.

The Democratic primary ended up being somewhat competitive. Three candidates spent over $900K, with Adam Edelen leading the way at $2.2M. Edelen also got $1.0M in support from issue group Kentuckians for a Better Future. Rocky Adkins spent $934K and finished second in the primary, while Beshear spent $1.3M. Beshear received 37.9% of the vote, compared to 31.9% and 27.9% from Adkins and Edelen.

In the general election, both candidates spent similar amounts of money: Beshear spent $4.1M and Bevin spent $4.0M. The issue groups showed up in a bigger capacity in the general election as both candidates received significant support from one main issue group. Many smaller issue groups added smaller amounts of money into the general election as well. Democratic group Bluegrass Values spent $5.7M while six other groups combined for $700K to support Beshear. On the other hand, Republican group Putting Kentucky First spent $9.2M while five other groups spent a combined $270K to support Bevin. In total, Republican issue groups spent $9.4M and Democratic issue groups spent $6.4M. This put the overall figures for the general election at $13.5M for Republicans and $10.5M for Democrats.

In 2023, Republican Kelly Craft is the top spender in the race so far. As of the first week of March, she has spent $2.3M. She recently began airing ads about China (and specifically the balloon incident), which may be an attempt to nationalize and re-politicize the race as Beshear has tried to appear as a non-political actor while governor. Beshear has only spent $43K on ads so far, as he will likely have a non-competitive primary and will not need to ramp up spending until the general election.

Louisiana

The race’s 2023 spending has been quiet so far, with just $408K total spent. Three Republican candidates have spent so far, while the Democratic issue group, Team Louisiana PAC, has spent $104K supporting Katie Bernhardt. Republican John Schroder has spent $289K so far, making him the highest spender at the moment. Two other Republican candidates have spent $15K combined, just on digital. The race is currently rated as Lean R by Cook Political Report and the early Democratic spending may suggest that this election could see a lot more ad money in the months to come.

The race’s 2023 spending has been quiet so far, with just $127K total spent. Three Republican candidates have each spent under $10K, while the Democratic issue group, Team Louisiana PAC, has spent $104K supporting Katie Bernhardt. The race is currently rated as Lean R by Cook Political Report and the early Democratic spending may suggest that this election could see a lot more ad money in the months to come.

The 2019 Louisiana gubernatorial race had $52M spent across the primary and general runoff.

Across both the primary and the general runoff, spending was dominated by the same two candidates: incumbent John Bel Edwards and Republican Eddie Rispone. They spent a combined $25.9M on ads in both elections, which equates to 50% of all spending in the race. The only other candidate to significantly spend in the primary was Ralph Abraham, who spent $2.1M and lost to Rispone by 4 points.

In 2019, issue groups significantly increased their spending in the two weeks leading up to the special general election. If the 2023 election becomes more of a tossup opportunity, spending could spike again as a result.

Mississippi

Mississippi has the safest rating of the three gubernatorial elections, as Cook has the election rated as Safe R. There has been essentially no spending in the race yet, as there is only $10K in digital ads.

In 2019, former Lt. Governor of Mississippi Tate Reeves dominated the spending landscape enroute to winning the governor’s office. He spent $6.7M across the primary, primary runoff, and general elections, contributing 55% of the race’s $12.1M total expenditure.

Reeves’ main primary opponent, William Waller, spent just $700K in the initial primary; he finished 8 points behind Reeves but was able to make it to a runoff. Waller was outspent at a 3.5:1 ratio in the primary and saw a similar 3.2:1 spending ratio in the primary runoff. Overall, Waller spent just over $1M throughout the two elections.

In the general election, there was very little issue group presence. Issue groups spent $245K out of the general election’s $6.7M total. The Democratic candidate, Jim Hood, spent $3.2M in the general election. He only spent $277K in the primary, but matched Reeves’ spending effort in the general.

While the broadcast spending is very similar, Reeves spent significantly more on digital and satellite than Hood. This is an effective way to reach a whole statewide audience, as cable and radio spending is more localized by market across the state.

Conclusion

These three states all lean heavily Republican when it comes to congressional voting, but Kentucky and Louisiana have shown recently that Democrats can succeed in typically red states. In order to start strong going into the 2024 presidential cycle, both parties may throw a lot of money into these elections.

These 2019 races can outline how spending may look in 2023, as spending could eclipse $100M. Kentucky and Louisiana may become highly contentious, and they have room to grow within their competitiveness. Kentucky is currently rated by Cook Political Report as Lean D and Louisiana is currently rated as Lean R. The average Lean gubernatorial race in 2022 saw $70M spent, and both races were well below that figure in 2019. Mississippi may be a less competitive race, but there still may be more opportunities for ad spending than it initially seems.

For more analysis on 2023’s races, check out our analysis on the first round of Chicago’s mayoral election.