Written by Nate Schwartz

Ron DeSantis won the Florida gubernatorial general election by 19.4% last year, but statewide elections in the Sunshine State have traditionally been much more competitive than that margin. The infamous 2000 Presidential election, which was determined by a mere 537 votes in Florida, emphasized how competitive the state once was. Barack Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012, however, as it stands today, the shift to the right has been stark: no Democrats hold a statewide elected office for the first time since the Reconstruction era.

Several factors have fueled Florida’s progression towards becoming a conservative stronghold. These factors encompass shifting demographics, responses to the pandemic, and the gradual erosion of the Democratic support base. The 2022 cycle saw a significant shift in Florida political ad expenditure. While Democrats had consistently directed funds towards Florida between 2016 and 2020, Democratic advertiser spending plummeted in 2022.

Florida’s overall spending progressively rose across three consecutive cycles between 2016 and 2020. In the 2022 cycle, however, the state saw $213M less than it did in 2020. While a substantial portion of this decline can be attributed to the 2020 Presidential race, the state registered the fifth-largest reduction in spending between the 2020 and 2022 cycles in the nation. Between the non-Presidential cycles of 2018 and 2022, Florida saw the largest reduction in total ad spending of any state. The Republican share of total ad spending surged by 24% from 2020 to 2022, shifting from 36% to 60% in Florida.

Between the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the average state saw a 219% increase in spending. Florida stood out as one of the twelve states that experienced a decrease in spending. Remarkably, it was the sole state to encounter a spending decrease exceeding $100M. Among the state’s most high-profile races, the gubernatorial and Senate races exhibited the most drastic drops in spending.

The decrease in spending mirrors the election ratings provided by Cook Political Report, indicating that the statewide races were no longer as competitive as they had been in the past.

Both races underwent a shift from being tossups to leaning towards the Republican side, leading to a sharp decline in spending for both races.

Governor

In the 2018 gubernatorial race, Andrew Gillum secured an upset victory in the Democratic primary and Ron DeSantis emerged as the Republican primary winner. DeSantis gained momentum in the latter part of the primary due to an endorsement from Donald Trump, while Gillum’s rise defied polling predictions. Given the fierce competition in both primaries and the viable prospects for both parties in the general election, the primary saw a staggering $113M, making it the most expensive gubernatorial election of 2018, exceeding the next highest spending election by $44M (and ranking as the second most expensive election in the entire 2018 cycle).

Democratic advertisers were the dominant contributors in primary spending, as they accounted for 67% of the total. Despite this, DeSantis attracted more ad spending in his favor than Gillum. While Gillum received only $2.5M in Democratic ad support, DeSantis garnered $10.4M in Republican ad support.

For the subsequent general election, ad spending amounted to $69M, making it the second most expensive gubernatorial election in 2018. The state party organizations were the top spending advertisers in the general election. The FL Republican Party 3 PAC and the FL Democratic Party 3 PAC made up a combined 78% of the total spending, with the Republican group slightly outspending their Democratic counterpart by $2M. The general election outcome followed a familiar pattern in Florida, with a razor-thin margin of just 0.4%. DeSantis secured victory for the Florida governorship, setting up a 2022 reelection bid.

The 2022 gubernatorial race saw a $68M decrease in ad spending from 2018, primarily attributable to changes in the primary. The 2022 gubernatorial primary election ranked as the ninth most expensive primary in the 2022 cycle, a shift from its leading position in 2018. Interestingly, despite the cancellation of the Republican primary, there was an increase in Republican spending during the primary timeframe.

In the general election, which pitted former Florida governor Charlie Crist against the incumbent DeSantis, Republican ad spending significantly outpaced Democratic spending. Republican ad spending constituted 86% of the total, largely driven by the $69M from the FL Republican Party 3 PAC. With $91M spent on ads, the general election was the second most expensive gubernatorial election in 2022, trailing only Texas. DeSantis won the 2022 general election by a whopping 19.4 points, indicating that the race is no longer as much of a tossup as it once was.

Senate

Florida Senate elections have mirrored the shift observed in gubernatorial elections. Although the 2018 and 2022 Senate elections involved different seats, the Cook ratings indicated a transformation from tossup to likely Republican status.

In 2018, Florida’s Senate race emerged as the eighth most expensive in the cycle, with the primary election alone garnering $49M in ad spending. This surge was primarily fueled by Rick Scott’s campaign, contributing $26M, while various issue groups added an extra $10M. In contrast, Democratic advertisers in the primary election only accounted for $12M, with half of that amount directed against Rick Scott.

The general election for the 2018 Florida Senate race turned out to be the costliest of the entire 2018 cycle, amassing $128M in ad spending. This election featured a competitive face-off between Rick Scott and three-term Senator Bill Nelson. Ad spending was fairly balanced between the two parties: Republicans spent $67M, while Democrats spent $60M. Each of these sums independently would have ranked among the top ten Senate election spending figures for 2018. Ultimately, Scott secured victory by an extremely narrow margin of 0.2%, leading to a 12-day recount process to confirm his win.

The 2022 Senate race, akin to the gubernatorial contest, was categorized as a likely Republican outcome. Spending lowered signficantly in both the primary and general elections, totaling an overall decrease of $96M compared to 2018. Democratic candidate Val Demings accounted for $22M out of the $30M total during the primary election. In the general election, advertisers spent a total $51M, with Democrats contributing $27M and Republicans $25M. Incumbent Republican Marco Rubio achieved a comfortable victory with a 16-point margin. In his previous run in 2016, he had won by an 8-point margin.

Numerous House districts have also experienced significant shifts in ad spending, primarily due to the redistricting of previously competitive areas. Notably, Florida’s most expensive House district in both 2018 and 2020, FL CD-26, transformed from a district with ad expenditures exceeding $20M to a mere $500K in spending during 2022. Similarly, other districts like FL CD-16 and FL CD-18 went from seeing over $6M each in 2018 to less than $200K in 2022.

Nevertheless, Florida’s political landscape has not completely shifted to the Republican side. In the 2023 Jacksonville mayoral race, Democrat Donna Deegan emerged victorious in a closely contested race. The entire race attracted a total expenditure of $13M, ranking it as the third most expensive mayoral race of 2023. Of this amount, $1.4M was spent on ads in support of Deegan, while Republican advertisers directed $10.5M in both the general election and the runoff election combined. For more in-depth information about the Jacksonville mayoral race, check out our Jacksonville mayoral deep dive.

In our 2023-2024 projections, Florida is projected to see a significant decrease. While it was the most expensive state for Presidential general election spending in 2020, we are predicting that it will drop to the eight most expensive state. This would be a drop of $269M, the most of any state.