Written by Sydney Beckham and Ethan Mort

Redistricting ahead of the 2022 Midterms drastically changed several contested Congressional Districts around the country. Since election day in 2022, several states have undergone additional redistricting due to concerns about racial or partisan gerrymandering. The new Congressional redistricting has already impacted political ad spending in North Carolina, Alabama, and Louisiana. 

North Carolina

In October 2023, North Carolina’s General Assembly approved a new redistricting map that effectively created gains for the Republican party. Under the new map, three districts currently held by Democrats are now rated as Safe R, causing Democrat incumbents Kathy Manning (NC-06), Wiley Nickel (NC-13), and Jeff Jackson (NC-14) to resign from their seats. 

In total, we’ve tracked $20.8M across all of North Carolina’s 2024 House primaries, with Republican advertisers contributing 98% of that total. In 2022, we saw $21.5M spent across House primaries, with 58% from Republicans.

A chart showing Republican ad support in NC primaries affected by redistricting

The state’s most expensive primary is NC-13 with $6.3M. The crowded Republican primary consists of twelve candidates, with Brad Knott, Kelley Daughtry, and Fred Von Canon among the top spending candidates. Each candidate has seen at least $1M in ad support, but Knott is the only candidate to receive support from an outside group. Republican PAC American Foundations Committee has spent $1.4M supporting Knott. The group’s ads have attacked both Von Canon and Daughtry while highlighting issues including the border, immigration, and Knott’s positive relationship with Trump.

In the NC-06 primary, six Republican candidates seek the nomination. Currently, there are no Democrats on the ballot for the primary or general elections. This primary has seen $3.8M in total spending. Bo Hines has received the most support, mainly from Club for Growth Action, who has spent $1.2M supporting his candidacy. His campaign has also spent $857K. In 2022, Hines unsuccessfully ran against Wiley Nickel in the NC-13 2022 general election. Conservatives for American Excellence has spent $660K attacking Hines, criticizing his support from Club for Growth Action. One ad includes a Trump Truth Social post and states, “Hines is siding with the same misfits, globalists and losers that spent millions attacking President Trump, referring to Club for Growth Action”. The group has not stated support for another candidate. Mark Walker’s campaign has spent $328K and has received $66K from Awake Carolina. The group has only spent on Facebook and Google ads. Addison McDowell and Christian Castelli have spent $300K and $200K respectively. 

In NC-14, Tim Moore (R) is the only candidate to spend on advertisements. Moore’s campaign has spent $982K, while Republican group Defend American Jobs has spent $545K supporting Moore. In 2022, the NC-14 primary saw $411K in ad spend, meaning 2024 has seen a 125% increase.

As the North Carolina primaries continue to heat up with Super Tuesday around the corner, the general elections in these three districts will likely not see much ad spend due to non-competitiveness within the new Congressional map. While Kathy Manning is not seeking candidacy elsewhere, Jeff Jackson is running for North Carolina Attorney General and Wiley Nickel is running for Senate this year.

Alabama

Alabama also received a new Congressional map in October, resulting in a potential Democratic gain in AL-02. The district is currently held by Republican Barry Moore and is rated as a Lean D seat. Moore announced he is now running in AL-01 primary against incumbent Jerry Carl, which has become the most expensive House election in Alabama history.

The two-person Republican primary in AL-01 has seen $4.7M in ad spending. Jerry Carl’s campaign has spent $1.3M, while two groups, Conservatives for American Excellence and South Alabama Conservatives PAC, have spent a combined $1.3M total on ads against Barry Moore. Both groups have mentioned Trump and Moore’s voting record for immigration and the border wall, claiming Moore wants open borders. In a Conservatives for American Excellence ad, the group asserts “Moore betrayed Trump and Alabama.” Barry Moore has received $1.6M in ad support between his campaign and two groups, House Freedom Action and School Freedom Fund. House Freedom Action’s TV advertising attacked Jerry Carl – also mentioning the border and Trump.  The ad claims Carl is “super soft on the border” and “not tough enough to finish Trump’s wall”. 

In the AL-02 primary, we’ve tracked $3.9M in ad spending. This primary is crowded with ten Democratic candidates and eight Republican candidates. Democrat Shomari Figures has received the most ad support in the election with $1.8M, primarily coming from the group Protect Progress. The group's ads highlight Figures’ family history serving Alabama and his work within the Obama administration. Figures is the only candidate to receive ad support from an outside group. Other Democrat candidates, including Anthony Daniels and Napolean Bracy, have each spent under $200K. Republican candidates have spent a combined total of $1.6M in the primary, lead by Dick Brewbaker ($871K) and Caroleene Dobson ($766K). Alabama’s primaries will also occur on Super Tuesday.

Louisiana 

In the Bayou state, Governor Jeff Landry approved a new House map earlier this year resulting in LA-06 flipping from Solid R to Solid D, according to Cook Political Report. Garret Graves (R) has represented LA-06 since 2014, but elections this year may end his chances of being re-elected for a sixth consecutive time. If Graves does run in his current district, he faces the high likelihood of losing to the Democratic candidate in November. In 2022, Graves received $830K in ad spend and won with 80% of the vote. Since his initial run in 2014, Graves has received $2.0M in total ad support. He has yet to announce where or if he will run in 2024. Louisiana’s Congressional primaries will occur on November 5th. 

The 2024 Cycle will likely be the most expensive in history. This week, New York’s State Legislature approved a new map, but it only provided minor updates to the 2022 map.  Redistricting in North Carolina, Alabama, and Louisiana will play a role in changing the Congressional spending landscape compared to last Cycle. To read more about 2024 spending, check out our Republican and Democratic Senate primary blogs here.  

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