Written by Sydney Beckham
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, located in southwestern Washington, has been a Republican district since 2010. Cook Political Report projected Republicans would retain control this cycle, rating it as a “Lean R” seat. FiveThirtyEight predicted the Democratic candidate had a 2% chance of winning. In a surprising turn of events, Marie Glusenkamp Pérez (D) secured enough votes and flipped the long-time Republican seat by over 2,500 votes. In this deep dive analysis, political ad spending and messaging in WA CD-03 will be examined.
In a highly competitive Republican primary, incumbent Jamie Herrera Beutler lost to Joe Kent. Kent is a Trump-backed candidate with an “America First” agenda. Herrera Beutler was one of ten Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump in 2021 and faced major criticism from her own party. There was a substantial difference between Republican party political ad spending in the primary and the general election. Democrats dropped about $40K on political ad spending in the primary, while multiple Republican candidates and PACs spent a total $5.85M. Herrera Beutler spent $1.9M in the primary and Winning for Women Action Fund, a Republican PAC, running anti-Kent ads spent $1.8M. Conservatives for a Stronger America, who supported GOP candidate Heidi St. John, spent $1.1M. Kent spent $647K on advertisements during the primary.
General election political ad spending was considerably lower than the primary, especially from Republican advertisers. The top spender in the general election was Glusenkamp Pérez’s campaign with $2.04M. Two Democratic PACs, House Majority PAC and Together for Progress, spent a combined total of $543K. On the Republican side, Joe Kent spent $777K, primarily on broadcast ads. Only one Republican PAC spent in the general: Guns Owners of America. This PAC spent $14K supporting Kent, focusing on protecting the 2nd Amendment.
Messaging in the race for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District covered a variety of topics, but the most frequent issue was abortion. Glusenkamp Pérez used her support of abortion rights and Joe Kent’s extreme anti-abortion views as a main point in multiple ads. Other ads from Glusenkamp Pérez highlighted Kent’s past comments about wanting Anthony Fauci to be charged with murder and calling COVID-19 a scam. She also highlighted his sympathy for rioters imprisoned after the January 6th insurrection. Kent’s advertisement messaging targeted inflation, President Biden, and crime. Those three topics were a common trend among Republican candidates across the country. Kent’s most aired ad highlighted inflation and taxes, blaming Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi. In another Kent ad, he called Portland, Oregon a “cesspool of crime.” Kent claimed Glusenkamp Pérez wanted to bring crime from Portland to Southern Washington.
Washington’s Third Congressional District saw nearly double the amount of political ad spending in the primary election than the general. The primary election had three Republican candidates spending along with PACs, totaling $5.85M. In the general election, Democrats spent $2.59M while Republicans only spent $800K, with most money coming from Glusenkamp Pérez and Kent’s campaigns. Despite little help from outside PACs compared to other races across the country, Glusenkamp Pérez delivered an unpredictable win for House Democrats in the 2022 Midterm Elections.
For more information on WA CD-03 and other Congressional party overperformances this cycle, check out our messaging analysis blog here.
