In Review ’24: The Cost to Win the House

Republicans retained their narrow House majority this November, delivering President-elect Trump a GOP trifecta as the Senate flipped to Republican control. 

The 2024 election cycle set a new record for ad spending, exceeding a whopping $11B. House races nationwide saw a 9% increase in spending over the 2022 Midterms and a significant 45% rise over the 2020 cycle. 

Democrats accounted for nearly 55% of House ad spending this past cycle, including over 60% of all House general election spending. The top three markets that saw the most House ad spend this cycle were New York ($173.9M), Los Angeles ($127.8M) and Portland, Oregon ($69.0M). 

Outside issue groups played a significant role in this cycle’s House races, contributing 59% of total spending. The “big four” House groups contributed the most: House Majority PAC (D, $219.4M), Congressional Leadership Fund (R, $213.3M), DCCC ($81.3M), and NRCC ($52.9M). Over the past three cycles, those four groups alone have spent over $1.6B in House advertising.

Examining broadcast ad messaging across House races this cycle, abortion emerged as the top issue, followed by immigration, taxation, crime, and character. Here are the top ten issues mentioned in broadcast airings targeting House elections in 2024:

State of the House 

Including those that flipped due to redistricting, 17 House seats were flipped this cycle: nine to Democrats and eight to Republicans. Thirteen of the flipped seats saw over $10M in total ad spending this cycle.

Among the flipped seats, two races stood out for their record-breaking spending: NY-19 and Alaska’s at-large seat.

This year’s New York’s 19th Congressional District contest became the most expensive House race ever, exceeding $50M in ad spend. The general election saw $47.2M. Incumbent Marc Molinaro (R) received $19.3M in ad support, primarily from the Congressional Leadership Fund with $9M. Democratic challenger, Josh RIley received $27M in ad support, with 38% coming from House Majority PAC and DCCC combined, spending $7.3M and $3.3M respectively. Riley’s campaign contributed $8.3M during the general election. Riley was able to flip the seat by under 5,000 votes. 

In Alaska, Republicans reclaimed the state’s at-large House seat from one-term Democrat Mary Peltola. Republican challenger Nicholas Begich flipped the seat in what became the third most expensive House race of the cycle and the second priciest flipped seat. Ad spending in the general election totaled $33.4M, with Democrats maintaining a slight $4M spending advantage. Begich received $8.7M in ad support from the Congressional Leadership Fund, along with $1.4M each from Club for Growth Action and the NRCC. Meanwhile, Peltola’s backing included $8.9M from Vote AK Before Party and $1.4M from the DCCC.

Notable 2024 Primaries

While this past election surpassed many historical records, it also featured the two most expensive House primaries ever, eclipsing the previous records set by Oregon’s 6th and Georgia’s 7th Congressional Districts in 2022. NY-16’s 2024 primary became the most expensive House primary ever, with spending reaching $25.4M. Close behind was Missouri’s 1st Congressional District’s 2024 primary, which reached $19.4M. Both districts were represented by “Squad” members Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush, who failed to advance past their primaries. In each race, the AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project spent over $9M on ads supporting primary challengers.

To read more about flipped seats in 2024, check out our analyses on the costly Ohio and Pennsylvania Senate seats.