Written by Ethan Mort
Last Sunday, President Joe Biden announced he is dropping out of the 2024 Presidential race. This decision made Biden the first sitting president since Lyndon B. Johnson to not seek re-election while eligible for a second term. Unlike Johnson’s case, Biden becomes the first sitting President to not seek re-election despite winning his party’s primaries. With endorsements from major Democratic leaders including Biden, and a majority of state delegates pledging support to her, Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to become the new Democratic Presidential nominee. Prior to dropping out, Biden saw $301M worth of ad support this cycle, more than double the ad support Donald Trump had received to date. Future Forward PAC currently has $130.3M in fall ad reservations that will likely support the eventual Democratic nominee.
The Biden campaign spent $207M this cycle, with 56% targeting Facebook and Google ads. In contrast, the Trump campaign has only spent $34.3M by yesterday. Biden targeted the battleground states of Pennsylvania ($35.3M), Michigan ($26.3M), Georgia ($21.4M), Arizona ($16.2M), Wisconsin ($15.5M), North Carolina ($13.7M), and Nevada ($11.4M). Additionally, the Biden campaign spent $2.8M in the Omaha market to bolster the President’s chances to win Nebraska’s Second District’s electoral vote. Biden spent $63.3M in June advertising, the most of any month this cycle. He also saw significant ad support from outside groups. Future Forward, Climate Power, American Bridge, and League of Conservation Voters significantly contributed to the $94M Biden received in group support.
The Biden campaign aired over 100K broadcast ads, 348% more than the Trump campaign. Abortion-related ads made up 16% of Biden’s broadcast airings, as Biden’s top-mentioned issues were character, healthcare, crime, abortion, and Medicare. An overwhelming majority (88%) of Biden’s broadcast ads attacked Trump. Biden’s most aired TV ad labeled Trump a dictator.
Biden has passed the torch to Harris, who spent $4.5M in her own Presidential campaign in 2020. Before dropping out prior to the first primary contest in 2020, she aired a :30s and :60s version of the same ad, talking about her family’s background, advocating for Medicare for All, and attacking Trump's tax policies. With Harris seemingly taking over the top of the Democratic ticket, Republican Presidential advertisers wasted no time in attacking her. Within a few hours of Biden’s endorsement of Harris, Trump-affiliated group MAGA Inc. aired an ad attacking Harris, accusing her of covering up “Joe's obvious mental decline," and attacked her on the border and inflation. The Harris Victory Fund (renamed from the Biden Victory Fund) is already up with fundraising Facebook ads starring Harris.
Should Harris win the nomination, she is likely to receive $134.5M in existing fall reservations in ads supporting her candidacy from Democratic Presidential advertisers. This number will likely increase as Future Forward reported receiving over $150M in new contributions within 24 hours of Biden dropping out. On top of that, the Harris campaign announced that she had received over $81M in donations within 24 hours of announcing her candidacy. Republicans have also posted large gains; within 24 hours of his conviction last May, Trump and allied Republican groups raised $69M. Republican advertisers currently have $78.9M reserved for the fall.
2024 Presidential spending and reservations have already passed the total from 2016. While 2020 saw triple the amount of spending we’ve currently tracked this year, a new Democratic nominee and the recent surge in contributions will skyrocket Presidential spending through election day. For updates on 2024’s most expensive contest, be sure to follow us on X.
