A Deep Dive into the Iowa Caucuses and the
NY CD-03 Special

State of the Cycle

Over the last two weeks, we tracked $47.3M in political ads. The top markets were Boston, Des Moines, and Cedar Rapids. The highest spending advertisers were SFA Fund Inc. ($9.8M), Trump for President ($3.6M), and MAGA Inc. ($3.1M).

We saw 163 unique broadcast ads that aired a combined 45,535 amount of times in 70 TV markets across the country.

On Facebook and Google, we tracked $5.1M in political ads. The highest spending advertisers were Biden Victory Fund ($460K), WorkMoney ($274K), and American Petroleum Institute ($191K). Top spending races were US Presidential ($1.2M), Environmental Issue ($253K), and Worker’s Rights Issue ($242K).

The Iowa Caucus

Presidential primary season is almost here and Iowa continues to be the key focus for GOP advertisers. The Hawkeye state has seen $120M in Presidential spending and reservations, ahead of New Hampshire ($69M) and national spending ($57M). This is the most expensive Iowa primary ever, as 2020 saw $89M and 2016 saw $75M. 

Past Spending

So far, there has been $109M in Iowa spending. SFA Fund Inc., Nikki Haley's PAC, leads the way at $27M. Accordingly, pro-Haley spending tops all candidates in Iowa. There has been $31M in pro-Haley expenditure, $300K ahead of pro-DeSantis spending. Although DeSantis' PAC Never Back Down cut all $2.5M of its 2024 reservations, a newer group, Fight Right, has spent $9.6M on ads attacking Haley and supporting DeSantis.

Looking Forward

Over the next week and a half, there is $7.2M in reservations in Iowa. Haley is seeing the majority of that ad spend, with over 57% being allocated to her support. DeSantis is getting 32% and Trump is getting 7% of the future reservations.

Market Breakdown

Two markets have been the main focus of Presidential money in Iowa: Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. Both markets have seen more than $30M in spending and reservations, while every other market has seen $48M combined on traditional media.

In Des Moines, Haley narrowly leads DeSantis, $11.1M to $10.4M. The next closest candidate in Des Moines spending is Tim Scott ($4.6M), who dropped out over a month ago. Pro-Trump spending sits just behind Scott. The rest of the field has seen $1.6M or less in the market.

Cedar Rapids has a similar distribution to Des Moines, but Haley holds a $10.0M to $8.5M advantage over DeSantis. Both Scott and Trump are close together at $4.1M and the rest of the field sits below $1.8M in Cedar Rapids.

Among the rest of the markets, Sioux City ($17.6M), Davenport (13.9M), and Omaha ($5.5M) lead the way. There has also been $4.2M on satellite and $1.9M on digital in Iowa. In these other markets, Haley leads DeSantis $14.9M to $13.6M, while Trump is at $7.5M.

 — NY-03 Special Election Breakdown

Last month, Republican George Santos (NY-03) was expelled from Congress over ethics violations. The open House seat is currently rated as a toss-up by Cook Political Report. Tom Suozzi (D) and Mazi Pilip (R) are the chosen candidates by their respective parties and will appear on the ballot February 13th.
Democrats have a huge spending advantage with House Majority PAC and DCCC funneling ad money into the election to support Suozzi. DCCC did not spend in the 2022 NY-03 general election, but have spent $1.1M for the 2024 special election. House Majority PAC has already spent $3.7M on ads, an increase from their $3.0M expenditure during the entire 2022 NY-03 general. Current total ad support for Suozzi is $4.9M.

Mazi Pilip has seen minimal ad support from Republican groups. The NRCC has contributed $847K so far, along with a coordinated buy between the NRCC/Pilip which has added an additional $100K. The NRCC spent under $100K in the 2022 NY-03 election. Current total ad support for Pilip is $947K.
This ad from DCCC aired earlier in the week and claims Pilip was "handpicked by MAGA".

— Written by AdImpact  GOP Primary Spending And Messaging Analysis: Fourth GOP DebateRead herePresidential Primary Messaging Analysis: Tone And Attack AdsRead here

  — Social Media BuzzPro-Ron DeSantis group Never Back Down is canceling all of its 2024 reservations in Iowa and New Hampshire. So far, we've tracked cancelations totaling $2.5M.— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) December 22, 2023 #NYPol: The NRCC is reserving airtime in the New York market with a 1/16 start date. So far, we've seen $242K placed.  Democratic advertisers have reserved $4.9M for the #NY03 Special. This appears to be the first Republican spending attempting to reclaim the Santos seat.— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) January 2, 2023 — AdImpact in the NewsIt's Crunch Time in Iowa and New Hampshire-Nathaniel Rakich, ABC News Republicans Spend Over $100 Million on Iowa Ads, With More to Come-Bridget Bowman, NBC News US Election Trail: Dueling TV Events, Attack Ads as Republicans Campaign in Iowa-Gram Slattery and James Oliphant, Reuters