Written by Ethan Mort and Josh Getz
As of May 22nd, Democratic advertisers hold a $137.3M advantage in future Presidential ad reservations over Republicans. Since Super Tuesday, Democratic advertisers targeting the Presidential election have run $47M worth of ads compared to $21.5M from Republicans. Republican advertisers currently have $1.5M in future reservations, with their latest reservation ending on May 28th. In comparison, Democratic advertisers have $138.8M booked through election day.
Both parties had placed Presidential fall reservations by the end of April 2020. Incumbent Presidential campaign spending is quite similar to that of four years ago. Donald Trump’s campaign had spent $84.5M by May 22nd, 2020. This year, Joe Biden’s campaign spent $79.5M through May 22nd.
Pro-Biden group, Future Forward (placing reservations under FF PAC and Future Forward USA Action), is currently the only major advertiser to place fall reservations targeting the Presidential election. Their 2024 fall reservations total over $134.5M on broadcast and cable. Future Forward’s 2024 reservations target the crucial battleground states of PA ($36.3M), MI ($26M), AZ ($21.5M), GA ($19.8M), WI ($16.7M), NV ($5.6M), and NC ($5M). Additionally, FF PAC has reserved $3.7M in the Omaha market, in hopes Biden can win in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District. A victory there would grant him a single, but potentially pivotal, electoral vote. If their current reservations hold, the group will exceed the $118.2M that Future Forward spent in 2020 supporting Biden.
Since Super Tuesday, Democratic advertisers targeting the Presidential election have aired $47M worth of ads through today and have an additional $138.8M reserved through November. Republicans, meanwhile, have aired $21.5M worth of ads since Super Tuesday, but only have $1.5M booked in future reservations. Pro-Trump group, MAGA Inc. has placed $12.7M in ad spending and reservations since Super Tuesday. The group has focused its spending in PA ($10.2M), GA ($1.3M), and MI ($248K). Trump’s campaign has not been on TV since February 27th, but the Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee and Trump National Committee have placed $4.7M on Facebook and Google ads since Super Tuesday. The Biden campaign has been on the air for 14 of the 21 weeks of 2024 so far and has spent and reserved $42M since Super Tuesday. The Biden campaign and Biden Victory Fund have placed $16.4M on Facebook and Google since Super Tuesday.
Both parties' advertisers' messaging has focused heavily on their party’s core issues since Super Tuesday. After abortion was only mentioned in 4% of the Biden’s campaign’s 2023 TV ad airings, the issue has played an elevated role in the campaign’s messaging in 2024. So far this year, 67% of Biden’s TV ad airings mention abortion. The Biden campaign’s second most mentioned issue in his TV ads has been healthcare. Another shift in Biden’s messaging strategy has been the frequency he’s mentioned Trump in his ad airings. In 2023, only 2% of the Biden campaign’s TV ad airings mentioned Trump. That number has shot up to 95% in 2024. Meanwhile, MAGA Inc.’s ads have focused on crime and immigration. Since Nikki Haley dropped out following Super Tuesday, all of the group’s TV ad airings have attacked President Biden.
The 2020 Presidential race saw a record $3.1B in political advertising. The 2024 contest has already seen $599.8M in total spending and future reservations through November. This summer, AdImpact will release a series of reports highlighting Presidential ad spending and messaging in the lead-up to November.
