All data is collected as of 6/4/2025
A crowded Democratic and Republican primary to replace New Jersey’s term-limited Governor Phil Murphy has shattered ad spending records in the Garden State. With over $85M in ad spending and reservations, New Jersey’s gubernatorial primary is the most expensive election on record in state history. The primary has also been the most expensive race of 2025 so far (beating out the $80M the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race saw), and is the fifth most expensive non-presidential primary on record. This year’s primary has already surpassed ad spending totals in last year’s California ($75M) and Maryland ($62M) Senate primaries. Despite a crowded primary on both sides, there’s been one unifying theme across broadcast ad messaging: President Donald Trump. The President has been mentioned in 70% of all primary broadcast airings, a stark contrast to the recent Wisconsin Supreme Court contest, where Trump was only mentioned in 5% of broadcast airings.
In a crowded field of candidates across both parties, nine different candidates have received at least $1M in ad support. Democratic advertisers currently account for 88% of all primary spending. Representative Josh Gottheimer (D) has received the most ad backing in the contest, with nearly one in every four primary ad dollars supporting his candidacy. More than half of that support comes from the outside group Affordable New Jersey ($14.6M), with $6M coming from his campaign and $2M from No Surrender PAC. On the Republican side, Trump-endorsed Former State Representative Jack Ciattarelli leads in ad support, with $5.9M supporting his candidacy. Republican group Kitchen Table Conservatives spent $1.1M opposing Bill Spadea.
Outside groups have played a significant role throughout the primary. Twelve different groups have supported or opposed nine candidates, collectively accounting for 54% of all ad spending. Notably, the top two advertisers in the race are both outside groups, pro-Gottheimer Affordable New Jersey ($14.6M) and pro-Sean Spiller Working New Jersey ($13M). Other groups with significant spending are pro-Steven Fulop Coalition for Progress ($8M), pro-Sherrill One Giant Leap ($5.1M), and another pro-Gottheimer group, No Surrender PAC ($2.1M).
New Jersey is made up of the New York City and Philadelphia TV markets. The New York City market has seen $57.6M in ad spending, while $19.7M has targeted Philadelphia. Former State Senator Steve Sweeney is the only candidate who has seen more ad support in the Philadelphia market than the New York City market.
President Trump has been a focal point in both Democratic and Republican broadcast ad messaging. Trump has been mentioned in 70% of broadcast airings, including in 72% from Democrats and 71% from Republicans. All of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Representative Mikie Sherrill, and Gottheimer’s broadcast airings mention Trump. Notably, Gottheimer received attention for using artificial intelligence in an ad depicting a boxing match with Trump. Sweeney is the only candidate who hasn’t mentioned Trump in the majority of his broadcast airings. On the Republican side, Ciattarelli has mentioned Trump in 71% of his broadcast airings, with recent ads touting his endorsement from the President.
Trump was only mentioned in 5% of broadcast airings targeting the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race, 2025’s first major statewide election. All mentions of Trump came from Republican advertisers. Interestingly, this is a reversal from the 2023 Wisconsin State Supreme Court race, where only Democratic advertisers mentioned Trump in their broadcast airings. The President, however, has been heavily featured in broadcast ad messaging for other 2025 races. The FL CD-01 special general election saw Trump mentioned across 48% of all broadcast airings, with all Republican advertisers’ broadcast airings mentioning the President. Similarly, the FL CD-06 special general election saw Trump mentioned in 51% of broadcast airings. In the ongoing New York City Mayoral primary, Trump has been mentioned in 62% of broadcast airings.
Democratic advertisers in the New Jersey gubernatorial primary haven’t solely attacked Trump. Attack ads from Coalition for Progress and Ras Baraka have targeted Sherrill, the only Democratic candidate to be targeted by other Democratic advertisers. Sherrill, however, seemingly already has her eyes set on the general. Her campaign recently launched an ad attacking Ciattarelli. An Emerson poll from May found Sherrill and Ciattarelli to be the frontrunners in their respective primaries. Overall, broadcast ad messaging has mostly been positive, with only 9% of broadcast airings attacking another candidate. Outside of Trump, the top issues across broadcast airings in the Democratic primary have been housing, healthcare, and taxation. In the Republican primary, it’s been immigration, inflation, and taxation.
In 2021, Governor Phil Murphy (D) only won re-election by 3%. In the 2024 Presidential election, Trump only lost New Jersey by 6%, a state Biden won by 16% in 2020. With narrow margins in several recent statewide races, both parties will likely continue placing significant reservations in an attempt to win the general election.
For analysis on the WI Supreme Court race, check out our blog here
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