With fierce competition in both the Democratic and Republican primaries, the 2026 Texas Senate race has already seen over $122M, making it the most expensive Senate primary on record. This year’s Texas contest became the first Senate primary to ever reach $110M, as it officially surpassed Arizona’s 2022 Senate primary, which had held the record at $109.5M.
Seeking his fifth term, incumbent John Cornyn (R) has received $69M in total ad support, making up over 57% of overall spending. His Republican challengers, Congressman Wesley Hunt and Attorney General Ken Paxton, trail significantly, with $12M and $4.1M in ad support respectively. On the Democratic side, spending has been concentrated behind State Representative James Talarico has received $20.8M in total ad support compared to the $4.5M supporting Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett
This year’s primary has already seen 60% more spending than the 2020 Texas Senate primary and general elections combined. That race, in which Cornyn won the general election by 9.64 points, saw $74.2M in total ad spending. The state’s 2024 Senate contest saw significantly more activity, with $210.1M in total spending. It currently ranks as the most expensive Texas race on record. Notably, its primary only saw $7.2M. This year’s primary has seen over seventeen times that amount.
The sheer intensity of primary spending by both sides of the aisle has drawn massive amounts of national attention. Republican spending accounts for $95.1M (78%), while Democrats account for $27.5M (22%).
Republican Primary
With $95.1M in total Republican primary spending, the GOP contest alone would rank as the second most expensive Senate primary in history if considered independently. Cornyn’s campaign and associated victory funds have spent $15.1M. He has also received support from groups including Texans for a Conservative Majority ($23.3M), Lone Star Freedom Project ($17.8M), and One Nation ($10.9M).
Meanwhile, Wesley Hunt has $11.5M in total ad support, while Ken Paxton has $3.7M. Hunt has received the most spending opposing his candidacy. Over the last two weeks, 20% of all Republican broadcast ads in the primary have attacked Hunt. Conservative Texas PAC alone has spent $5.8M against Hunt throughout the primary. If none of the candidates receive more than 50% of the primary vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff, set for May 26th. Recent polls suggest Hunt has drawn enough support to prevent a single candidate from reaching that threshold. This would likely lead to a runoff between poll leaders Cornyn and Paxton.
Republican primary advertising has extended far beyond Texas’ media markets, as ad buys have targeted Washington DC, New York City, and West Palm Beach, Florida (which houses Mar-a-Lago). President Donald Trump has not endorsed a candidate in the contest.
Democratic Primary
While spending considerably less than the Republicans, Democratic advertisers have spent $27.5M in the primary. Talarico’s campaign has spent $14.8M making up 53% of total Democratic advertising. He has also received $7.2M in ad support from Lone Star Rising PAC. Crockett has received $4.6M in total support, with the majority coming from her campaign.
Pro-Talarico group, Lone Star Rising PAC, aired an ad attacking Crockett, accusing her of being supported by Republicans who believe she will be an easier opponent to beat in the general.
The Cook Political Report currently rates the 2024 TX Senate general election as Likely R.
Stakes are high for both parties in this primary. Some Republicans have expressed concern that if John Cornyn were to lose renomination, the party could be forced to spend hundreds of millions of dollars defending the seat in the general election, resources that might otherwise be deployed in a battleground Senate race.
That concern reaches the highest levels of leadership. John Thune recently noted, “Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat [flips], depending on who the Democrats nominate.”
Whether the race heads to a runoff or transitions directly into a general election, AdImpact will continue tracking the advertising behind what could become one of the most expensive Senate contest of the cycle.
