Once considered a battleground state, Florida continues to see a decreasing share of political ad spending. Last year, we looked at how ad spending has followed the competitiveness of Florida elections: the total ad spend was down, but a greater share of the spending was by Republican advertisers. The 2024 cycle continues Florida’s shift towards non-competitive races, with even less money being spent on ads in their primaries.
Florida saw $54.3M spent primaries this cycle, a 46% decrease from the 2020 cycle. While a plethora of states saw similar percentage decreases, only Maine (-$51.1M) and California (-$53.4M) saw a bigger drop in actual ad spending than Florida (-$46.3M).
While the lack of Presidential primary spending accounts for a significant share of the change between 2020 and 2024, there have been fewer high-profile primaries. In 2020, there were five non-Presidential primaries with over $1M in ad spending and eleven in 2022. 2024 saw only four primaries over $1M, even though it saw more spending than 2020.
As the state has become more Republican, the share of ad spending has also continued to become more Republican.
In terms of non-Presidential general election spending, Florida continues to be a shell of its former competitive self. Between today and Election Day, the state has just $15.5M in spending and reservations, ranking 19th among all states.
Florida’s Senate race is the most expensive election in the state, and Cook Political Report rates it as Likely Republican. It has seen $17.3M in total spending and reservations, with 63% coming from Democratic advertisers. In 2022, the Florida Senate general election, also rated Likely Republican, had already seen $24.9M in aired expenditure, with 50% coming from Democratic advertisers.
There’s been even less Presidential spending for the 2024 general election, with only $1.4M in spending and reservations. This pales in comparison to previous Presidential election cycles, as 2016 saw $55M in aired general election spending, and 2020 saw $177M during that time frame.
The top spending advertiser is the Harris campaign, which has spent $539K. Other big-name advertisers who air Presidential ads in the Sunshine State have not been targeting the state as a whole, but rather the eyes of the Trump campaign in West Palm Beach. The Lincoln Project, FF PAC, Anti-Psychopath PAC, and Trump himself have aired cable ads in the West Palm Beach market.
Florida has seen significant spending relative to expectations in one area: its Constitutional Amendments. Amendment 3 would legalize marijuana, and Amendment 4 would protect abortion rights; they have seen a combined $100.8M. Florida only trails California’s $187.8M in 2024 issue spending.
Amendment 3 has seen $68M in spending and reservations, with $55.1M in support of the amendment. Smart and Safe Florida, the group that got Amendment 3 on the ballot, is responsible for all the spending in support. In opposition to Amendment 3, No on 3 has spent $8.2M, and the Republican Party of Florida has spent $3.5M. The top airing ads from both sides take the amendment from different angles: Smart and Safe Florida’s ad features a former police officer discussing the increased safety the amendment brings. In contrast, No on 3’s ad calls it the “Monopoly Amendment,” as it benefits corporations with special licenses.
Amendment 4 has seen $32.8M in spending and reservations, with a more even distribution than Amendment 3. There is $22.2M in ads supporting the Amendment compared to $10.6M in ads attacking it. Floridians Protecting Freedom represents almost all supporting spending, with $22.1M in spending and reservations. Opposing Amendment 4 has been the Republican Party of Florida, with $10.5M in spending and reservations. Floridians Protecting Freedom’s top airing ad states that Florida’s current abortion ban is extreme, while the Republican Party of Florida attacks the language of the Amendment.
While spending will continue to increase in important elections across the Sunshine State as Election Day approaches, it will remain below the previous battleground levels Florida was known for in past cycles.
